US CPI data hit a new high since January, US dollar fell

On September 12, in the early trading of Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered at 97.55. On Thursday, U.S. inflation data in August was slightly hot, and initial unemployment claims data were weaker than expected, strengthening expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut. The US dollar index fell in response and finally closed down 0.31% to 97.50. U.S. Treasury yields generally fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.0260%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields sensitive to Fed policy interest rates closed at 3.5520%. As the weakness in U.S. employment data overwhelmed the market's concerns about stronger inflation data, spot gold narrowed its decline and remained near its historical highs, eventually closing down 0.21% to close at $3,633.46/ounce; spot silver rebounded a bigger rebound and finally closed up 0.93% to $41.50/ounce. International crude oil has fallen due to concerns about weak U.S. demand and widespread oversupply risks. WTI crude oil eventually fell 2.37% to $62.23 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.88% to $66.32 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$97.55. Although the current inflation data is stabilizing, the surge in unemployment claims highlights the weak labor market, and traders' confidence in the Federal Reserve's rate cut by at least 25 basis points next week is growing. U.S. Treasury yields may gain some support near current levels, but unless labor market data stabilizes, the U.S. dollar index may test the support level of 97.109 again. Technically, the US dollar index fell 0.2% to 97.57 as the market pricing cut rate by 25 basis points is 94%.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1734. The euro/dollar rose during North American trading session after the ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged, while the dollar weakened after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was consistent with expectations. Technically, the EUR/USD finds support above the 50-day moving average (1.17), indicating that buyers are active on lows. The pair recently rebounded from a local low of 1.16082 and hit a volatility high of 1.17801. The 50-day moving average continues to provide dynamic support, and a continuous breakthrough of 1.1750 will expose the 1.18 level. The near-term outlook for the euro/dollar is moderately bullish as Fed easing policy and euro positions improve.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3573. The pound/dollar rose more than one-third of the percentage point on Thursday, boosted by weakness in the US dollar, with investors betting that the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates for the rest of the year. Global markets are turning to awaiting next week’s Fed rate decision, which is scheduled to be held on September 17, followed by the Bank of England (BoE) rate decision, but is not expected to attract much attention. Technically, the GBP/USD remains above the 50-day moving average (1.3) and 200-day moving average (1.3083), indicating a strong technical foundation. Recent price action has challenged the 1.35950 resistance level, and breaking through this resistance may accelerate to 1.3650. The short-term outlook for the pair is bullish given the favorable interest rate outlook and a strong chart structure.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Friday, gold hovered around 3638.88. Spot gold maintained an overnight fluctuation trend and is currently trading around $3,635.18 per ounce. Although spot gold prices fell slightly by 0.2% to $3,632.49 an ounce on Thursday, they were not far from the all-time high set on Tuesday. Gold prices hit a new record of $3,674.36 on Tuesday. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have risen by 38%, not only due to geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures, but also deeply affected by U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations.

Technical: From a technical perspective, gold prices continue to rise. On the daily chart, gold prices are much higher than their moving average, the bullish 20-day simple moving averageLine (SMA) accelerates upward, higher than the longer-term moving average. Meanwhile, the technical indicators rose after a moderate downward correction, but remained at an extremely overbought level. ?Recently, according to the 4-hour chart, gold has entered a consolidation stage, but the trend risk is still on the rise. Gold prices are well above all moving averages, with a bullish 20-cycle SMA providing short-term support around $3,625 per ounce. The 100-cycle SMA and the 200-cycle SMA also rose, but were far below the above short-term moving average. Technical indicators have turned downward within a positive level, reflecting a lack of upward action rather than suggesting a near decline in gold prices.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 61.78. Oil prices fell on Thursday, closing below more than 2% as concerns about a possible weaker U.S. demand and widespread supply glut offset the threat to output from the Middle East conflict and the Ukrainian war.

Technical: After the WTI crude oil futures price hit the key resistance level 63.70, it temporarily stopped its previous rise. Prices are now trying to gain additional momentum to help it break through this barrier while trying to abandon the obvious overbought levels that appear on (RSI), especially if they have negative overlap signals. The technical side is still supported by trading above the EMA50, which relieves previous negative pressure, with short-term bullish correction waves dominating.

Forex market trading reminder on September 12, 2025

①14:00German August CPI monthly rate final value

②14:00UK July three-month GDP monthly rate

③14:00UK July manufacturing output monthly rate

④14:00UK July seasonally adjusted stofoco.commodity trade account

⑤14:00UK July industrial output monthly rate

⑥14:45F August CPI monthly rate final Value

⑦22:00 The expected initial value of the US September one-year inflation rate

⑧22:00 The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September

⑨The next day 01:00 The total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to September 12

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