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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Non-agricultural employment data revitalizes the bet on interest rate cuts in September, and the US dollar rebounds ineffectively." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On August 4, after the bleak employment data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) are getting higher and higher, and the US dollar (USD) will find it difficult to strengthen against other currencies at the beginning of this week. The U.S. Economic Calendar will release interim data on Monday.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday that the number of non-farm employment (NFP) rose by 73,000 in July, lower than market expectations of 110,000. In addition, BSL announced that it would reduce the growth of non-farm employment budgets in May and June by 125,000 and 133,000 respectively. “With these revisions, employment in May and June stofoco.combined was 258,000 less than the previous report,” the release reads.
According to the CMEFedWatch tool, with immediate response, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September jumped from about 30% before the data was released to more than 70%. In turn, the U.S. dollar index fell nearly 1.5% on average on a daily basis and erased most of its weekly gains. Earlier Monday, the U.S. dollar index was still in a consolidation phase below 99.00. Later in the day, market participants will closely monitor factory order data for June and loan officer surveys for the second quarter.
At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's policy decision and called on Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates after weak employment data. Trump also announced the firing of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Director Erica McKentavor, accusing her of lying on numbers for political purposes. U.S. stock index futures rose about 0.4% during the European session on Monday, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose nearly 1% intraday to close to 4.25% after falling 3.8% on Friday.
Euro/USD benefited from the weakening of the dollar again on Friday, up 1.5% on the day. Nevertheless, the pair closed in the negative territory this week. In early European trading on Monday, the euro/dollar traded in a narrow channel above 1.1550. Sentix's August investor confidence data will appear in the European Economic Calendar.
The GBP/USD rose more than 0.5% on Friday, but still recorded a sharp drop this week. The pair remained stable early on Monday and consolidated sideways below 1.3300.
The US dollar/yen fell 2.2% on Friday, marking one of the biggest single-day drops this year. The pair pulled back higher on Monday and rebounded to 148.00.
Gold prices fell from the $3,369 region touched on Monday, the weekly high, which now seems to have prevented last week's good recovery from a one-month low, and are currently hovering around 3355.
Euro: The intraday bias of the euro/dollar is currently on the rise. The correction from 1.1829 may be stofoco.completed, and there have been three waves of declines to 1.1390. Further gains will retest the 1.1788/1820 resistance zone. On the downside, breaking through 1.1390 will resume correction to the 38.2% retracement level 1.0176 to 1.1829, that is, 1.1198.
The above content is about "[XM foreign exchange decision analysis]: Non-agricultural employment data revitalizes the bet on interest rate cuts in September, the United StatesThe entire content of "Correction Rebound" was carefully stofoco.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for your support!
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