The trade war escalates in full swing, and analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 1

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.84%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.86%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.98%. The German DAX index fell 1.91%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.52%, the French CAC40 index fell 2.11%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 1.92%.

2. Market news interpretation

The trade war has escalated in full swing, and the global market has collectively "shut down". ⑴ Trump's new round of tariff policies has caused severe shocks in the global market. ⑵ Global stock markets fell in response, with the Pan-European Stoxx600 index falling more than 1% in the early trading, setting the largest single-week decline since April. ⑶ US stock index futures also fell across the board, with both Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures falling by more than 1%. ⑷ This new tariff policy targets dozens of trading partners, and imposes high tariffs of 35%, 50%, 25% and 39% on countries such as Canada, Brazil, India and Switzerland respectively. ⑸ Although the market has adapted to Trump's tariff threat, the wide range of tariffs and high tax rates have still aggravated the market's concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth. ⑹Capital Economics said the new tariffs will increase the average effective tariff rate of the United States to 18% from 2.3% last year. ⑺ Governments are actively seeking negotiations with the United States in a bid to obtain better tariff clauses, but analysts generally believe that there is no real winner in the trade conflict and the overall impact will be negative.

The economy slows down and inflation is stubborn, and the central bank of Mexico cuts interest rates in August is a foregone conclusion

⑴ A Reuters survey shows that MexicoThe Bank of Columbia is expected to cut key interest rates by 25 basis points to 7.75% on August 7. ⑵If the forecast stofoco.comes true, this will be the tenth rate cut since the bank started its easing cycle in March last year, and interest rates will drop to its lowest level since June 2022. ⑶ Although Mexico's inflation slowed down in the first half of the year, core inflation remained high after excluding the volatile food and energy prices. ⑷ Deutsche Bank analysts pointed out that although most policymakers may support rate cuts due to a decline in overall inflation, some officials have expressed concerns about the stickiness of core inflation. ⑸ The central bank's decision to cut interest rates stofoco.comes as Trump agrees to maintain a 90-day suspension of tariffs on Mexican goods for trade negotiations. ⑹In addition, Mexico's economic growth rate was lower than expected, which also provided support for the central bank's interest rate cut. ⑺While rate cuts seem to be a foregone conclusion, the mixed prospect of inflation and economic growth may prompt the central bank to adopt a more cautious 25 basis point small rate cut strategy.

Trump's trade stick swung again, and the oil market saw a "butterfly effect"

⑴Trump demanded that India stop importing Russian oil, a move that could threaten Russia's billions of dollars in revenue. ⑵ India has become the largest buyer of Russian oil since 2022, with daily purchases of up to 2 million barrels, accounting for 2% of global supply. ⑶ Given that the Indian route is crucial to Russia, JPMorgan analysts believe that if the route is blocked, Russia may retaliate with closing the CPC pipeline. ⑷The pipeline is responsible for the task of Occupy Petroleum to the market, and if closed, it will have an impact on the West. ⑸ In addition, if India stops purchasing, Russia will need to store oil through tankers and provide more discounts for new buyers, which may lead to a gradual decline in its oil production. ⑹JP Morgan pointed out that it is not feasible to exclude the world's second largest oil exporter from the global market, as the move could lead to a surge in oil prices. ⑺If the CPC pipeline and India's oil transmission route are interrupted at the same time, it will create a daily supply gap of 3.5 million barrels, accounting for 3.5% of the global total supply.

A bolt from the blue! Trump's tariffs are aimed at Switzerland, and manufacturing may usher in a "darkest moment".

⑴ Trump announced a high tariff of 39% on Swiss imported goods, which shocked the Swiss government and manufacturers. ⑵This tax rate is much higher than the 15% tax rate for most EU imported goods. ⑶ The head of Swissmem, the Swiss Manufacturer Association, said that the decision lacks a rational basis and will threaten tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs in the country. ⑷ Although Switzerland is the seventh largest investor in the United States, exporting about $80 billion in goods to the United States last year, its core export industries, such as watches, jewelry and chocolate, will be severely impacted. ⑸ It is worth noting that Switzerland's pharmaceutical industry is not currently listed at the 39% tariff, but it is still facing pressure from the United States to reduce drug prices. ⑹ The Swiss government has stated that it will continue to work hard to reach a negotiated solution. ⑺However, the new tariffs will stofoco.come into effect on August 7, and there is little time left for negotiations for both sides.

The giant suffered from both sides and backThe enemy, European automakers' profits in 2025 are on the rise

⑴Fitch Ratings said that due to Trump's tariff remarks and intensified market stofoco.competition, European automakers' profit margins in 2025 will be under pressure. ⑵In addition, the acceleration of electric vehicle transformation will also dilute profits, and Fitch expects European automobile production to continue to fall below pre-epidemic levels by 15%-20%. ⑶ Trump's tariff remarks will have a negative impact on European automakers' sales in the United States, especially on high-end models exported from Germany, Japan and South Korea. ⑷ For example, Volkswagen's Porsche and Audi brands, as well as Mercedes-Benz's SUV production may be impacted. ⑸ European car stofoco.companies are facing challenges from their Asian local stofoco.competitors, and their market share continues to be eroded, and even high-end areas that have traditional advantages are facing price pressure. ⑹Fitch expects that while most investment-grade automakers are able to meet these challenges, their profitable and free cash flow generation in 2025 will be further reduced, resulting in negative rating outlooks and actions in the industry.

Alarm! Inflation exceeded expectations, and the ECB's expectation of interest rate cuts failed

⑴ Latest data showed that the initial CPI in the euro zone in July recorded an annual rate of 2.0%, higher than the expected 1.9%. The annual rate of core CPI is in line with the expected 2.3%. ⑵ After the data was released, European government bond yields remained high. Among them, Germany's 10-year government bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 2.711% after the data was released. ⑶ Analysis points out that inflation may still be higher than the ECB's expectations in the next few quarters. This means that the European Central Bank is unlikely to cut further interest rates, and the market needs to be vigilant about repricing expectations for interest rate cuts. ⑷This change reflects the market's concerns about the European Central Bank's future policy path. Traders need to pay close attention to subsequent data releases and the latest statements from central bank officials to respond cautiously to potential market volatility. ⑸With the continued inflationary pressure, the volatility of risky assets may intensify. ⑹ Investors should stofoco.comprehensively consider macroeconomic data and technical indicators and formulate flexible trading strategies.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1398, a drop of 0.13%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (Euro-USD) fluctuated intraday, and in the short term, affected by the dominance of bearish correction waves, the negative pressure on its trading below the EMA50 continued, indicating a weak bullish momentum.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3154, a drop of 0.39%. Before the New York market, (GBPUSD) price rose slightly in the last session, trying to regain some of the previous losses and abandoning some of the oversold conditions of (RSI), especially with the positive signal, it trades with the primary and secondary deviation lines in the case of a predominant short-term major bearish trend, indicating negativesThe amount of momentum and the dominant strength of this trend.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3303.57, an increase of 0.41%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price fell in the last intraday trading, affected by short-term bearish trendline trading, indicating the intensity of dominant negative momentum, and in addition, negative pressure continued due to its trading below EMA50, accompanied by negative signals on (RSI), after reaching an overbought level that is exaggerated stofoco.compared to the price.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 36.394, a drop of 0.79%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price fell in the final intraday trading, with a short-term bearish correction trend dominant and trading along the bearish bias line supporting this trend, ready to break through the key support level 0.3630, which was our recommended target yesterday, and the price had previously reached that level due to its stability to bounce higher to mitigate the obvious oversold situation on (RSI) and open the way to record more losses.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell and is now at 69.120, a drop of 0.19%. Before New York, (crude oil) prices rose slightly in the last session, taking advantage of the stability of the key support level of $68.45, providing positive momentum and helping the price stabilize and rebound slightly in an attempt to recover, which is dominant in the main bullish trend and its trading along with the support bias line of the trend, as its trading above the EMA50 continues to support.

4. Institutional View

Citi: Raising Microsoft's target price to $680 continues to be the first choice among super-cap stocks

Citi issued a report saying that Microsoft's performance in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, further highlighting the acceleration of Azure's growth and verifying Microsoft's leadership in market share improvement and artificial intelligence monetization. Based on $75 billion in annualized revenue, Azure growth accelerated by 4 percentage points is incredible, but more impressive is its drivers (from a wide range of large customer demand, not just the timing of capacity), indicating a longer-lasting strength after the fiscal year, especially the acceleration of stofoco.commercial order growth, and preliminary current quarterly guidance shows positive corrections. The bank once again raises its forecast for Azure growth for the current fiscal year2 percentage points. With more production capacity going online, the optimistic scenario of Azure growing by more than 40% year-on-year in the current fiscal year looks more reasonable. Microsoft's leadership in the field of generative artificial intelligence, stofoco.combined with its view on its accelerated revenue and profit growth, has made the stock continue to be the bank's preferred super-cap stock, with a target price increase to $680, a rating of 43 times the forecast price-to-earnings ratio and a "buy" rating.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The trade war has escalated in full, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on August 1st". It was carefully stofoco.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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