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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: Trump's tariff deadline is stofoco.coming, will non-farm data show fatigue again?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On August 1, during the trading session of Asian market on Friday, spot gold trading was around $3,291.40/ounce, and gold prices rose on Thursday, as tariff uncertainty continued to exist before the deadline set by US President Trump to end negotiations on August 1, and traders turned to safe-haven assets; U.S. crude oil trading was around $69.40/barrel, oil prices fell on Thursday, as tariff concerns increased and crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased.
The Bank of Japan held short-term interest rates unchanged by a unanimous vote on Thursday, a move that was widely expected by the market. The bank also raised inflation expectations in the stofoco.coming years.
After that, the Federal Reserve kept U.S. interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, ignoring President Trump's continued call for lowering borrowing costs. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also said he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates.
The resilience of the hawkish Federal Reserve and the U.S. economy has supported the dollar exchange rate, and uncertainty over Trump's chaotic tariffs has eased after a series of trade deals.
MonexUSA trading director Juan Perez said: "There is conflict and friction between what the Fed is seeing and its decisions, and the actions many in the White House and the stock market want the Fed to take. If we stofoco.completely abandon the hawkish tone, hawkish stance and hawkish press conferences, the dollar is reasonable and it does rise. But today, the dollar has hit the brakes again due to friction between the Fed and the White House."
Data showed that the number of new Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, indicating that the U.S. labor market remained stable.
"I think there is excessive optimism in the euro price," said Jane Foley, a strategist at Rabobank. And I think this sentiment has fallen back this week. There are many stofoco.comments about the EU's concessions to the United States on this trade deal, which is a realistic sobering agent for Europeans.
The EU agreed on Sunday that the U.S. imposes a 15% tariff on goods exported to the U.S., which eliminates a lot of uncertainty.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also said that the U.S.-Japan trade agreement reduces uncertainty in the outlook and raises the possibility that Japan will last for a 2% inflation target, which is a prerequisite for further interest rate hikes.
Asian Market
The latest data released on Friday showed that China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell from 50.4 in June to 49.5 in July. This figure is lower than the market forecast of 50.3.
European Market
European data released yesterday showed that the labor market continued to remain elastic and inflation unexpectedly rose.
The unemployment rate in the euro zone stabilized at 6.2% in June, exceeding expectations of a slight increase to 6.3%. Throughout the EU, unemployment remains unchanged at 5.9%, highlighting the strong employment despite trade disruptions and slowing manufacturing activity.
In Germany, inflation pressure is stronger than expected. In July, the overall CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding the market's expected 0.2% increase. The annual inflation rate remained at 2.0% year-on-year, higher than expected 1.8%, indicating that potential pressure is stable even in the face of weak growth. Import prices remained flat this month, a slight drop of -0.2% month-on-month that exceeded expectations, and may limit some deflation through exchange rate channels.
In addition, Switzerland's retail sales increased by 3.8% year-on-year in June, far higher than the year-on-year market expectations of 0.2%. The data contrasts sharply with concerns about weak domestic demand in the region and may reinforce the rationale for the patient SNB as it weighs the need to restore negative interest rates.
U.S. market
Canada's GDP in May shrank -0.1% month-on-month, down for the second consecutive month, in line with expectations.
The decline was driven by weakness in the stofoco.commodity production sector, especially the pullback in mining, quarrying, oil and gas. Although manufacturing has managed to expand, service output has remained generally flat. Only 7 of the 20 industries achieved growth.
However, there may be some relief – Statistics Canada estimates showed GDP growth of 0.1% in June, with strong retail and wholesale trade partially offset by a decline in manufacturing.
The Fed's preferred inflation indicator almost eased in June, with the core PCE index remaining at 2.8% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 2.7%. Overall PCE inflation rate also rose from 2.4% year-on-year to 2.6%, exceeding expectations. Both monthly readings were 0.3% month-on-month, strengthening the stofoco.comrmation that price pressure proved to be sticky and triggeringPeople question the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut.
In terms of households, income and expenditure have improved slightly. Personal income rose 0.3% month-on-month, rebounding from an unexpected decline in May. Personal spending has also grown the same amount, although slightly below the 0.4% sequential forecast. The recovery shows that consumers are still active, but a slight decline in spending suggests an increasing sensitivity to price levels and borrowing costs.
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