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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Eurozone Economic Recovery, Spot Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and Foreign Exchange Short-term Trend Analysis on July 31". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
U.S. stock futures rose sharply, S&P 500 futures rose 1.1%, and Dow Jones (44461.2812-171.71-0.38%) Industrial Average futures rose 0.4%. The Nasdaq (21129.67431.380.15%) 100 index futures, which account for a high proportion of technology stocks, jumped 1.5%.
Barclays economists said that as the euro zone's economic performance in the second quarter was stronger than expected, the European Central Bank may now maintain interest rates for a longer time. Data released earlier this week showed that the eurozone's economy grew by 0.1% in the second quarter, breaking previous expectations of a regression in the economy. Barclays therefore raised its eurozone economic growth forecast this year from 0.8% to 1.1%. Against this backdrop, economists say the ECB will likely decide to keep interest rates at 2% at the next monetary policy meeting in September.
The US dollar is expected to achieve its first monthly increase since 2025 in July. This is due to the tough stance of the Federal Reserve and the strong performance of the U.S. economy. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell said he was not in a hurry to lower interest rates and did not disclose when it could be lowered again. Meanwhile, the uncertainty brought about by US President Trump's chaotic tariff policies has also eased after a series of trade agreements.Those who are confident in the resilience of the US economy have increased. The euro was one of the biggest victims of the dollar's gains this month as investors pulled back bets previously made based on the assumption that "European markets may offer more opportunities." The euro is expected to fall nearly 3% this month.
Preliminary data released by the German Federal Statistics Office on Thursday showed that Germany's inflation rate in July fell 1.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than expected. Germany's core inflation rate (excluding volatile food and energy prices) remained unchanged at 2.7% in July. German economic data will be released on Friday and euro zone inflation data will be released on Friday. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the euro zone inflation to be 1.9% in July, down from 2.0% last month. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged last week and made a moderately optimistic assessment of the eurozone economy, raising concerns among investors about further easing policies.
According to the Lebanese National News Agency, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called for the promotion of "exclusive control of weapons" by the military and security forces across the country. In his speech, Aoon demanded that the state power be extended across the country, disarm all armed groups, including Hezbollah, and hand over the weapons to the Lebanese army. He stressed that adhering to the "monopoly" of the military and security forces over weapons throughout the country aims to defend national sovereignty and borders and regain occupied territories. According to the Lighthouse TV station of Hezbollah, Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Naim Qasim said on the 30th that Hezbollah's armed forces "exist to resist Israel and will not be used for domestic affairs."
On the 31st local time, U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East of Waitkov visited Israel and met with Israeli Prime Minister stofoco.comanyahu. According to previous reports from local media, both sides willIt mainly discusses issues such as the Gaza ceasefire agreement, the current humanitarian situation in Gaza and the Iranian nuclear issue. In addition, Witkov plans to travel to Gaza.
European wine sector fell, subject to the EU's statement that wine and spirits will face 15% tariffs in the United States starting from August 1. Perno Riga shares fell 2.5% in the Paris market, while Diageo fell 2.4% in the London market. Both stocks ranked among the worst performing stocks in the Stock 600 Food and Beverage and Tobacco Index on Thursday. The share price of InBev in the Brewer-Busch fell after sales fell below expectations in the second quarter, which also dragged down the index.
⑴ US President Trump slams Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on social media. ⑵Trump bluntly stated that Powell's action was "too late" and "too angry, too stupid, too politicized" and was not suitable to continue as chairman of the Federal Reserve. ⑶ He accused Powell of "losing trillions of dollars" in the United States. ⑷ At the same time, Trump also criticized Powell for his performance in architectural projects as "the most incompetent and corrupt architectural (group) renovation in architectural history." ⑸ Trump calls Powell "Mr. Taichi" and asserts that he is a "complete loser", and the country is paying the price. ⑹This fierce criticism once again highlights Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. ⑺Trump has publicly criticized the Fed's interest rate hike policy many times, believing that it has hindered US economic growth. ⑻The escalation of remarks indicates that tensions between Trump and the Fed are still ongoing and may trigger further market concerns about the independence of the Fed.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1435, an increase of 0.27%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (EURUSD) fell in the last session after it tried to regain some of its previous losses and tried to get rid of its apparent oversold condition on (RSI), especially in the case of positive signals, but the price succumbed to bearish correction waves and their negative pressures, continuing below EMA50, closing below support at 1.1430, enhancing the possibility of a decline.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3226, a drop of 0.08%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) price rose in the last intraday trading due to its current support level of 1.322, dominant major bearish trends on a short-term basis, and it trades with the primary and secondary bias lines supporting this trend, with negative pressure on its trading below the EMA50. Prices try to regain some previous lossesand throw away some obvious oversold conditions on (RSI) and start to show positive overlap signals from there.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3308.48, an increase of 1.03%. Before New York, the (gold) price fell in the last trading session, after retesting the key resistance at $3310, it faces negative pressure due to the stability of the resistance level, especially if it successfully releases the (RSI) oversold condition, opening the way to record more losses, increasing the negative pressure around it as it trades with the bearish trendline as the negative pressure brought by its trade below the EMA50 is continued.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 36.613, a drop of 1.30%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price deepened its decline in the last intraday trading, affected by the dominance of the short-term bearish correction trend and its biased line along the reinforced negative track.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell and is now at 69.630, a drop of 0.51%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices began to recover and rose slightly in the last trading session after it successfully gained positive momentum and got rid of the obvious overbought situation on (RSI), opening the way for more gains in the near future.
Dutch International Group analyst Francesco Pesole said in a report that the US dollar is expected to rise again because the upcoming data may be detrimental to the recent U.S. interest rate cut. He said that the core PCE price index (a stofoco.commonly used inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve) in June released at 20:30 Beijing time may exceed expectations. Other data worth paying for initial unemployment benefits came after the data unexpectedly fell for six consecutive weeks. This is the longest decline since August to September 2022 and may indicate a strong labor market performance. In addition, the non-farm employment data released on Friday may also be "good enough" to support the Federal Reserve's continued suspension of interest rate cuts.
Sentime Market research stofoco.companynTrader said the U.S. stock market is about to end its hottest July ever. In this month, the S&P 500 has hit record highs 10 times (the third best performance since 1928), and the Nasdaq stofoco.composite Index has hit record highs 14 times. Such "super month" is rare in summer, and historical data shows that August has become difficult after a similar surge in July. Historically, when the S&P 500 hit at least seven years highs in July, its probability of rising in August was only 36%, while the probability of rising in the next two months was less than half. The Nasdaq stofoco.composite has shown stronger resilience, usually rebounding strongly after 4 months, but August still becomes like a **.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Eurozone Economic Recovery, Analysis of Short-Term Trends of Spot Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and Foreign Exchange on July 31". It was carefully stofoco.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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