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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market stofoco.comment]: Trump's urgent sanctions against Russia, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 29." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.13%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.30%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.47%. The German DAX index rose 1.17%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.55%, the French CAC40 index rose 1.10%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 1.02%.
⑴On July 29, US President Trump unexpectedly shortened the deadline for the most severe sanctions on Russian oil exports, and suddenly shrank the original 50 days to 10 to 12 days, arousing high attention from the market. ⑵ If the so-called secondary sanctions are imposed, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Russian oil buyers, which may seriously disrupt global oil supply. ⑶ Data from the International Energy Agency showed that Russia's crude oil exports in June were 4.68 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4.5% of global demand, and there were 2.5 million barrels per day of refined oil exports. ⑷ India, as the largest importer of Russian crude oil shipped in June, has an average daily import of 1.5 million barrels. Against the backdrop of Sino-US trade negotiations, it may be forced to give up Russian oil. ⑸ Nevertheless, if India stops purchasing, the Kremlin's finances will still be squeezed. ⑹ Although OPEC+ gradually lifted the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut in April, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait still have a total of 3.8 million barrels per day idle production capacity and can be put on the market within 90 days. ⑺However, the market still bearsWorrying that Russia may take retaliation measures, such as having briefly prevented foreign tankers from loading crude oil at Black Sea ports, exacerbating the risk of soaring oil prices.
The latest population forecast report released by the Italian Central Bureau of Statistics on the 28th showed that the country's population will continue to decline in the next few decades, and the total population may decrease by nearly one-quarter by 2080. Among them, the southern region is expected to become the area with the worst population loss. According to the report, Italy's current population is about 59 million, and is expected to decrease to 54.7 million by 2050 and further decrease to 45.8 million by 2080, a decrease of about 22% from the current level. Analysis shows that Italy has experienced natural negative population growth for more than 15 consecutive years. Although immigrants have alleviated the trend of decreasing the total population to a certain extent, it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the situation. The report said that as the population continues to decrease, the age structure of Italian society will also undergo significant changes. By 2050, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above will rise from 24.3% now to 34.6%; while the proportion of the working-age population (15 to 64 years old) will drop from 63.5% to 54.3% now; the proportion of the population under 14 years old will drop slightly to 11.2%.
European natural gas prices continue to rise as US President Donald Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, posing a threat to Russia's energy exports, which is a move that is rising in Asia. European benchmark natural gas futures rose 3.1% on Tuesday, marking the biggest single-day gain in more than two weeks, and three consecutive gains.
⑴On July 29, the market is closely monitoring the upcoming June JOLTS job vacancy data that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release, which is crucial to assess the situation of the U.S. labor market. ⑵ The market generally expects that job vacancies will drop slightly to 7.55 million in June, and labor market conditions are a key consideration when formulating interest rate policies. ⑶ Although the number of job openings has steadily declined since reaching a peak of 12 million in March 2022, it rose to 7.76 million for two consecutive months in May this year. ⑷ Even if the U.S. trade deal with Japan and the EU eases recession concerns, uncertainty over the inflation outlook may prompt the Fed to avoid easing monetary policy before the labor market deteriorates significantly. ⑸ CME FedWatch tool shows that the market hardly believes that the Fed will cut interest rates at its July 29-30 meeting. ⑹However, if the JOLTS job vacancy data is significantly lower than 7 million, it may increase the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the current probability of about 60%. ⑺In this scenario, the US dollar may face downward pressure immediately. ⑻On the contrary, if the data meets or exceeds market expectations, the US dollar is expected to remain firm. ⑼No matter what the dataInvestors may choose to wait and see before the Fed’s policy statement on Wednesday, and the impact of data on the US dollar’s valuation may not last.
The Economic Truth newspaper wrote that the EU has stopped providing assistance to Ukraine due to the autonomy of anti-corruption agencies. The published article quoted sources from government, parliament and diplomatic departments as saying: "On July 24, EU representatives told the government led by Ukrainian Prime Minister Sveridenko through diplomatic channels that they would stop providing all financial assistance to Ukraine." The article pointed out that the decision will be reconsidered after the situation is improved. Ukrainian journalists believe that the "Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Bureau and Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Procuratorate Restriction Act" signed by Zelensky may allow Ukraine to spend $60 billion in external financing from 2025 to 2026.
⑴ The Trump administration's trade strategy is showing a new model, focusing not only on tariffs, but also on procurement and investment stofoco.commitments. ⑵ However, the fulfillment of these stofoco.commitments has caused market concerns, similar to previous questions about agricultural procurement stofoco.commitments in China's first phase of trade agreement. ⑶ The EU promised $600 billion in the United States, and Japan also made a similar promise of $550 billion, but analysts generally doubt whether it can be realized. ⑷ Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, believes that there is a huge difference between the EU's investment stofoco.commitments and actual expectations, and he expects the actual investment may be only tens of billions of dollars. ⑸ Rachel Ziemba, a senior researcher at the New American Security Center, expressed doubts about the EU's stofoco.commitment to purchase US$750 billion in US energy by 2028, pointing out that this far exceeds Europe's actual demand, with the US exports of fossil fuels to the EU last year only US$78 billion. ⑹Analysts expect small countries to face higher tariff risks in the future, while some goods not covered by existing agreements may also face similar tariff rates to those of Japan and the EU.
⑴The European Central Bank announced that from the end of 2026, climate change will be included in its lending operations. ⑵ This move aims to put pressure on banks to direct financing to greener industries to support the eurozone carbon reduction target. ⑶ The ECB said it would introduce a "climate factor" that may reduce the valuation of qualified collateral based on the extent to which assets are affected by climate uncertainty. ⑷ This new policy is expected to stofoco.come into effect in the second half of 2026, aiming to provide a buffer for the potential financial impact of climate change-related uncertainties. ⑸ Unlike the Federal Reserve's withdrawal from the global climate risk initiative, the European Central Bank has further strengthened its stofoco.commitment to climate risk. ⑹ The ECB has previously continued to urge stofoco.commercial banks to disclose more climate-related risks and has warned of fines for non-compliant banks. ⑺EuropeThe central bank's new "climate factor" will focus on tradable assets issued by non-financial stofoco.companies and specific adverse events related to green transformation.
⑴ The US Federal Reserve's policy mechanism may be facing fundamental changes. ⑵ U.S. senators have recently promoted the deprivation of the Federal Reserve's key means of controlling interest rates, coupled with the succession dispute of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which indicates that monetary policy tools will be subject to stricter scrutiny in the future. ⑶ Although there is no sign of change in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy mechanism at present, the situation may change as President Trump prepares to appoint Powell's successor. ⑷ Republican Senator Cruz had previously pushed for the termination of the Federal Reserve's interest payments to bank reserves. If successful, it would subvert the way the Federal Reserve manages interest rates and have a significant impact on his large amount of bond holdings. ⑸ How the Fed uses bond purchases and balance sheets to regulate the economy has also attracted much attention. ⑹ Since 2022, the Fed has reduced its holdings of more than $2 trillion in bonds, and the market expects that the reduction will end when the balance sheet drops to about $6.1 trillion, while Fed Director Waller even believes that it may drop to $5.9 trillion. ⑺Some potential successors of the Federal Reserve Chairman, such as former Federal Reserve Director Valsh, have even proposed more radical bond share reduction plans in order to boost the real economy. ⑻Former Fed President Dudley and former senior Federal Reserve official Ellen Meade both pointed out that returning to the pre-financial crisis policy system will be a difficult task that may bring macroeconomic pain. ⑼ The current losses faced by the Federal Reserve are not inherent in the interest rate control system, but are caused by stimulating the economy to purchase longer-term bonds. ⑽Analysts at LHMeyer, a forecasting stofoco.company, pointed out that recent developments are largely related to the Republican Party's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve and demanding it relax its policies.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1533, a drop of 0.47%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (EURUSD) price closed at the recent intraday low, successfully reducing losses due to the stability of key support level 1.1555 in early trading, which was our recommended target in the morning, rebounding higher with positive signals on the (RSI) after reaching the oversold level, breaking through the main bullish trend line still has a valid short-term basis, suggesting that the negative track will continue in the near future.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3334, a drop of 0.14%. Before New York, the (GBPUSD) price fell sharply in the last session, confirming a breakthrough of key support level 1.3365, as the main bearish trend dominates on a short-term basis and its trading is traded along with the support bias line of the trend, its negative pressure continues to fall below the EMA50, except for negative signals (RSI), despite reaching oversold levels, it indicates that the selling force is dominant in the trading.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3322.18, an increase of 0.22%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price rose on the last trading day, supported by the positive signal on the (RSI) at $3,310 support stability. After reaching the oversold level, it was noted that it reached the oversold level, indicating the end of the bullish momentum and appeared on the candles on the day-based basis, while being affected by the short-term outstripping the long channel range.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 38.067, a drop of 0.18%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price rose slightly in the final session, and after successfully abandoning the obvious oversold situation on (RSI), it entered an exaggerated overbought level stofoco.compared to the price trend, indicating the positive momentum of the price, and under the influence of the short-term bearish correction wave and its breakthrough of a small bullish trend line, negative pressure on its trading below the EMA50 continues to exist, indicating that its upcoming trading is under negative pressure.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 67.030, an increase of 0.48%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price fell in narrow sideways trading at the last level of the intraday level to gain positive momentum that could help it confirm a breakout of the current resistance at $66.55, trying to clear the overbought signal on (RSI), especially as negative signals begin to appear, affected by short-term breakout of the small bullish bias line, it continues to trade under support above the EMA50, forming a dynamic support that helps the stability of the bullish track.
⑴ Goldman Sachs' latest report recommends buying US dollar/JPY put options, betting on the current exchange rate of 148.30, which is attractive. It is recommended to buy a one-cycle 146.50 strike option at a cost of 21 basis points. ⑵ The bank expects the Federal Reserve to release a signal of a rate cut in September, coupled with the potential weakness of non-farm data, the US dollar may face downward pressure. If the Bank of Japan continues its hawkish stance, it will intensify monetary policy differentiation. ⑶ Goldman Sachs pointed out the periodThe market priced only 50 basis points in volatility expectations, and believed that the market overvalued Japan's political risks, and the probability of Takashi Saemi being elected as the leader of the Democratic Party is low.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Trump's urgent sanctions against Russia, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 29". It was carefully stofoco.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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