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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The country may approve the supply of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, and the gold trading tax policy will be adjusted." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On November 3, spot gold was trading around US$3,990 per ounce. The hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve officials last week put pressure on the market. At the same time, the easing of trade tensions dragged down gold prices. US crude oil was trading around US$61.35 per barrel, and uncertainty about the situation in Venezuela increased.
On Friday, the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar recorded a monthly decline, mainly because the Bank of Japan was not as tough as the market expected on raising interest rates. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also suppressed expectations of an interest rate cut in December, which jointly boosted the strength of the US dollar.
Although Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki said that he was monitoring exchange rate trends with a high sense of urgency, and Tokyo's core inflation data accelerated and remained above the central bank's target, providing some support for the yen, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's cautious attitude on raising interest rates still disappointed the market, causing the yen to stofoco.come under pressure. Some analysts believe that the Bank of Japan will eventually promote policy normalization, coupled with wage growth and potential fiscal expansion policies, which may provide long-term support for the yen.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar index extended its gains, recording its best monthly performance since July. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December have cooled significantly, with traders now pricing in a 63% chance of a rate cut, down from 93% a week ago. Some strategists pointed out that the U.S. dollar faces technical resistance, but given that market positions are close to the limit, it is difficult to further short the U.S. dollar.
In Europe, the euro fell against the dollar after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time and stressed that policy was in a "good position." The pound fell to multi-month lows on worries about theChina's fiscal policy and economic outlook, and expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have increased.
The expansion of China’s manufacturing activity slowed down in October, with RatingDogPMI falling from 51.2 to 50.6, lower than the expected 50.9. The slowdown reflects weaker demand momentum and growing headwinds from global trade tensions, which has weighed on both output and new export orders.
According to RatingDog founder Yao Yu, both demand and production expansion have softened. Export orders "sharply fell into contraction territory" as rising trade uncertainty dampened overseas demand. Output growth also cooled, but sub-indexes remained in expansion territory. Purchasing activity "slowed significantly," suggesting manufacturers are more cautious as they enter the year-end.
Price pressure weighed on profits as raw material costs rose while finished goods prices fell. Exporters lowered sales prices for the first time since April to stay stofoco.competitive amid weak external demand. Still, the survey provided a bright spot: the employment index returned to expansion for the first time since March, reaching its highest level since August 2023.
Inflation in the Eurozone slowed slightly in October, but underlying price pressures remain sticky. According to preliminary estimates, the overall CPI dropped slightly from 2.2% to 2.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was steady at 2.4%, a surprising rise from expectations of 2.3%.
A closer look at the breakdown shows that the service industry inflation rate rose from 3.2% to 3.4%, confirming that the most persistent source of price pressure still stofoco.comes from the labor-intensive service industry. At the same time, food, alcohol and tobacco inflation slowed to 2.5%, non-energy industrial goods slowed to 0.6%, and energy prices fell by -1.0%, a larger decline than September's -0.4%.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid staunchly defended his decision to oppose a quarter-point interest rate cut this week, arguing that the U.S. economy remains resilient and inflation is too high to justify further easing.
Schmid said in a statement that the labor market is "basically in balance", the economy continues to show "momentum" and policies remain "only moderately restrictive". On this basis, he believes it is appropriate to keep interest rates steady at this week's meeting.
Schmidt emphasized that monetary policy should continue to "focus on demand growth", giving room for supply expansion and alleviating price pressures.
The Kansas City Fed president also emphasized the uneven impact of monetary policy on the Fed's dual mandate. He noted that current labor market pressures are more structural, driven by technology and demographics, rather than cyclical weakness that rate cuts can effectively address. Therefore, he questioned the effectiveness of further easing policies at this stage in supporting employment..
On the other hand, Schmid warned that even a small rate cut could have a "longer-lasting impact on inflation" if markets begin to doubt the Fed's stofoco.commitment to its 2% target.
Canada’s economy shrank by -0.3% month-on-month in August, a much larger drop than expected flat data, highlighting the general weakness in the goods and services industry.
The goods-producing industry declined -0.6%, its fifth contraction this year, according to Statistics Canada. Services fell -0.1%, the first decline in six months. The data added to concerns that Canada's growth momentum remains fragile amid trade headwinds and domestic weakness.
Looking ahead, preliminary estimates show that GDP increased by 0.1% month-on-month in September, providing a mild sign of stability. Growth in finance, insurance, mining, oil and gas extraction and manufacturing was partially offset by declines in wholesale and retail trade.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The country may approve the supply of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, and the gold trading tax policy will be adjusted." It was carefully stofoco.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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